Expected DA from January 2025 @55% or 56% ?

All-India CPI-IW for the month of November 2024 issued

The All-India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) for November 2024 remained unchanged at 144.5 points. This stability suggests a potential 3% increase in the existing rate, which may lead to a 56% Dearness Allowance (DA) and Dearness Relief (DR) for Central Government employees and pensioners, effective January 2025.

However, the future DA/DR adjustment hinges on the next month's CPI-IW index. Two possible scenarios emerge:
  • If the CPI-IW index drops by 0.6 points or more, the DA/DR rate may decrease to 55% from January 2025.
  • If the index increases or decreases by up to 0.5 points, the expected DA/DR rate will likely remain at 56%.


In summary, a minor decrease of 0.6 points in the next month's CPI-IW could lower the expected DA/DR rate to 55%. Conversely, any positive change in the CPI-IW index would likely confirm the DA/DR rate at 56% from January 2025.

Expected DA/DR from January 2025 on issue of All-India CPI-IW for November 2024

Expected DA/DR table from JANUARY 2025 - PoToolsBlog.in

Increase/
Decrease
Index
Month Base
Year
2016
=100
Base
Year
2001
= 100
Total
of 12
Months
Twelve
monthly
Average
% increase
over
115.76 for
6th CPC DA
% increase
over
261.42
for
7th CPC DA
6th CPC
DA
announced
or will be
announced
7th CPC
DA
announced
or will be
announced
  Existing DA/DR from Jul, 2024 246% 53%
1.3 Jul,24 142.7 411 4820 401.67 246.98% 53.65%    
-0.1 Aug,24 142.6 411 4830 402.50 247.70% 53.97%    
0.7 Sep,24 143.3 413 4847 403.92 248.93% 54.51%    
1.2 Oct,24 144.5 416 4864 405.33 250.15% 55.05%    
0 Nov,24 144.5 416 4879 406.58 251.23% 55.53%    
0 Dec,24 144.5 416 4895 407.92 252.38% 56.04% Expected  
  Expected DA/DR from Jan, 2025 252% 56%

Senario-1 – If CPI-IW decreases to 0.6 point in next Month

0 Nov,24 144.5 416 4879 406.58 251.23% 55.53%    
                   
-0.6 Dec,24 143.9 414 4893 407.75 252.24% 55.98% Expected  
  Expected DA/DR from Jan, 2025 252% 55%

Senario-3 – If decrease in CPI-IW not less than 0.5 point in next month or any positive change

-0.5 Dec,24 144.0 415 4894 407.83 252.31% 56.01% Expected  
  Expected DA/DR from Jan, 2025 252% 56%

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